Box Office Thread - $458.6 Million Worldwide

[Downhere]

So much negativity thebrotherhood. The X-Men franchise has always been frontloaded. The first film had the best multiplier but at the time was still seen as a film that fell a great deal each week. The same happened with X2, 85 million opening weekend and only a 215 million dollar gross. But one cannot deny that even though some may see it as negative Fox sees it as a hit. Not only that, but they probably made more with X3 than NATM because the first and second week they get the biggest cut of theatrical takings. I also don't think anyone thought X3 was going to make more than POTC, everyone knew that was a monster that would be number one. The X-Men films do admirably but have never hit the heights of the other blockbusters. All in all, they make a profit for Fox and that is what Fox cares about. At the end of the day, profit wins all.

Also, records are meant to be broken and with this year's lineup, many records will fall. I would not expect POTC 3 to be as big as part 2 though for the simple fact that Shrek 3 opens a week before and will eat into POTC 3's takings.

[Upthere]

angel18 said:

I know X3 will be one of the highest grossing films this year.
It had a HUGE opening weekend and it is doing very well at
the box office.

Trust me, Pirates 2 and Superman will NEVER have the opening weekend X3 had. No movie that comes out this year can beat 107 mil (3-day intake) and a 120 mil (4-day intake), it is not going to happen.

But anyway, i remember people from way back that thought X3 would beat everything in its sights. The above post is just an example. I'm just saying that the frontloadeness of the film really doesn't make its box office gross look good at all, i mean 100 million dollar weekend and not even passing 240 million?!? It has one of the worst legs of all time, i saw a chart before on Box office mojo. Last year, Night at the Museum and Cars were the films with legs.

[Downhere]

I know what your saying thebrotherhood, but the people who made those claims didn't know much about box office stats and all. Those who did, knew that it wouldn't hit those heights. While you say that the frontloadedness of the film doesn't make the total gross look good, the same could be said for X2 which had, at the time, a huge 85 million dollar opening weekend and could only muster 215 million domestically. That looks very similar to X3's take adjusted for inflation. These films are blockbusters, but are not uber blockbusters. Either way, X3 has been profitable for Fox. $459 million in box office, 8+ million DVD's sold, etc., all that is what Fox looks at and it made money.

[Upthere]

either way you look at, i think Fox would have been much more happier had it made like 500 million+ worldwide considering their film had a 102 million OW. So this frontloadeness can be a sort of disappointment in their eyes. But of course, it did make profit, but it just probably could've and should've gotten more.
Oh yeah and one more thing, your predictions on the top 4 films of 2007?

I'll go with:
1. Pirates-140/370 mil
2. Spider-Man-130/350 mil
3. Shrek-110/340 mil
4. Harry Potter- 115/290 mil

But yeah, with so much competition in May, neither of the 3-quells will get 400 mil+, something they all would've been capable of.

[xfan6]

DH- from what i've heard, the box office gross is spilt 50/50 the whole time now; it USED to be that the studio got more in the beginning of the run, but not anymore.

i agree that xmen should make WAY more money than it does. and it doens't make that much money considering the production cost. DH- how much profit do u think they make?

i think that if X3 had gotten better reviews it would've made much more money. (the 2nd week drop would've been MUCH lower) also i think fox did some REALLY stupid thing. for example, i think if fox had left in the "I am phoenix line" the movie actually would've made more money.

my prediction for 2007 using those 4 films...(assuming they all open on fridays)

1. POTC3 (unfortunately) 128/390
2. spider-man3 (unfortunately) 125/370
3. shrek3- 105/340
4. harry potter5- 100/305

[Downhere]

There isn't any concrete evidence of the whole 50/50 thing, I think the only ones who know the truth on that is if they are in the know.

Usually the studio gets about 55% of the worldwide take, which means Fox got around 252 million. The production budget was 210 million. 252 - 210 mil = 42 million in profit from it's worldwide theatrical release. So, add that with the very good DVD sales and they have more than 100 million in pure profit. I think that's saying something.

No matter the reviews, the X-Men franchise just doesn't go that much beyond it's initial fanbase. Look at X2 for an example, it got critical praise as being one of the best comic book movies of all time but could only muster 215 million domestically after an 85 million dollar opening and a tad over 400 million worldwide. Also, the dvd's only sold about 6 million copies from 2003-2004. X3 sold 5 million DVD's in it's first week.


This year, predictions will be useless as it will be way too hard to determine how everything goes. I highly doubt May can support 3 movies each passing 300 million. The film in May that has the best chance to be the highest grosser is Spider-Man 3 as it has 2 weeks all to itself. POTC 3 will have to face the second weekend of Shrek 3. Out of all the films in May, I would think Spider-Man 3 will have the highest grosser with POTC 3 second and Shrek 3 third. I actually wouldn't be surprised if either Shrek 3 or POTC 3 moved from their slots. This will probably be the most interesting month in Box office history.

[Upthere]

Pirates has no reason to move, it has the memorial weekend, the largest weekend of the year as you would know. And i think the question should be how much Pirates will affect Shrek's 2nd weekend. We look back at Shrek 2 and it had its largest drop with Harry Potter 3. Pirates 3 is even bigger. We all saw what X3 did on this weekend, and Pirates will just destroy its record. And i honestly think may can support three 300 mil+ films with the fanbases that each have, as these are the largest franchises as of right now. But no matter what the pattern of X-Men films were with their legs, it is still pathetic that over half of the total gross was earned during the first four days. It does go down as one of the films with the worst legs in box office history.

[Downhere]

Shrek 3 and POTC 3 reach a similar audience that coupled with Spidey 3, there will be over-saturation in the marketplace. I think one of the films will suffer and not reach 300 million and that would most likely be Shrek 3. If POTC 3 is in some way inferior to part 1 and 2, I wouldn't expect it to reach the heights of the second film. Look at The Matrix and Back to the Future series as an example. At this point, I see Spidey 3 coming out on top. It's the first film to open the Summer season and it has been 3 years since the last film. Shrek 3 will probably at most reach 300. I don't expect POTC 3 to be as big as last year's POTC 2. Like I said, this will be an interesting May, for nothing of this sort has ever happened.

While everyone continues to complain about X3's total...let's not forget X2 had a similar path. Even with the rave reviews by critics and novice alike, it still only managed a 2.5 multiplier. X3 got a 2.34 multiplier, but an overall higher gross. Also let's remember that the X-Men franchise is one of very few franchises in which each film made more than the previous one. It seems some people can't understand that the X-Men films open big but fall hard. Even if the absolute greatest X-Men film were to be made, I can guarantee you that it would fall in line, multiplier and total gross wise, with the other X-Men films. Just be content that they made enough for sequels and all of the films were relatively well made.

[Upthere]

The fact that POTC 3 has the memorial weekend helps it so much, and i see it getting 160 million during the four day span. It now has possibly the largest fanbase of the three. It is the number one selling live action DVD of all time. It doesn't face that heavy of competition with Fantastic four ( the firstmovie is just crap and the WOM was horrible)and Ocean's 13.

And i still find it funny that a film with a 100 million opener falls immediately to number 2 the next weekend and never regains the top spot again. I know it has a history of bad legs, but still.

[Downhere]

POTC 3 is going to have to battle it out with Shrek 3. This is why early predictions don't mean squat. Shrek 2 made more domestically than POTC 2. Small kids will be dragging their parents numerous times to see it. While I personally don't see it making as much as part 2, the fan base is huge and two things will either happen. That is that Shrek 3 cuts very deeply into POTC 3's domestic gross or vice versa. If one considers the kid factor that dragged their parents numerous times to see part 2 (That is the only way it would reach such heights as it did), then Shrek 3 could very well damper POTC 3's gross. I'm not the biggest Shrek fan, it's good but not 441 million dollars good, but I think everyone should not underestimate it's power. $441 million domestically and $920 million worldwide is nothing to sneeze at. Considering the demographic for Shrek 3 and POTC 3 are similar, this is why I think Spidey 3 will come out on top. Shrek 3 and POTC 3 could cannibalize each other.

[Upthere]

Look back to 2004, Shrek suffered its largest drop when Harry Potter 3 opened, and Pirates is a bigger monster.

In other news, FOX looks like its summer 2008 tentpole is......wolverine, how lame. I wouldn't even consider that a tentpole. And its too late for anything else during Summer 2008 cause its already packed, just like 2007 with Prince Caspian, Indy 4, Wall-E, Hulk, Tonight he Comes, Mummy 3, The Dark Knight.... I don't know why X-Men 4 isn't even announced, after all, that's pretty much their only hit franchise left. I mean we already saw three wolverine movies. The first one, Wolverine, was in 2000, the second one was Wolverine United, and the thrid was Wolverine's last stand. Do we really need to see a fourth one?

[Downhere]

No double posting please.
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Shrek suffered its largest drop (which wasn't all that large) 2 and a half weeks after it opened. POTC 3 comes out one week after it opens. POTC 3 is going to have to contend with Shrek 3. This is a different scenario than with HP3. The week after HP3, the drops leveled out again. Anyways, Shrek is a very popular franchise among the little ones. I expect the little ones to drag their parents many times to see this movie. Not only will POTC 3 have Shrek to battle with, it later has Fantastic Four 2. Now, this time around the movie is getting great response from the teaser and if it is better than the first could hit 200 million. That will have a similar demographic as POTC 3 which will again hinder it's performance. This year is not like last year where POTC 2 didn't have major competition. This year it has trouble from all corners.
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I have a feeling that Wolverine will be more profitable than the X-Men films for the fact that it shouldn't cost as much to make a Wolverine film. If Wolverine ends up costing around 80-100 million and makes 400 million worldwide, it would prove very profitable and a new franchise could be born centered on Wolverine. If that happens, say goodbye to any chances of an X-Men film in the near future.

[Upthere]

Okay, how can Wolverine make 400 million WW? It is definitely less popular than the X-Men as a whole. And aren't the X-Men films already centered on Wolvie? Either way, Fox is screwed in the future. Honestly, an X4 would be more well-received and would gross much more.

[Downhere]

It's a guess, that's all it is. I was just saying that Wolvie could prove to be more profitable. And when you ask average joes and janes about X-Men, and ask them what they remember from them you will most likely get this: "That's the one with the guy with the claws right?" At least, that's the answer I always get from people not into X-Men. They end up saying it's pretty cool and Wolverine was awesome. Like I said, if Wolverine proves to be more profitable than X-Men, say goodbye to the X-Men franchise, at least until Marvel gets the rights back.

[Upthere]

Well, at least the X-Men franchise has been somewhat proven to be able to generate a decent amount of profit. So why no X4? Spider-Man 4 seems to be pretty much announced as David Koepp was in talks to write it.

[Downhere]

The problem is that another X-Men film would end up costing more than X3, unless they do something about the big character's which the actor's playing them cost a lot of green to secure.

I think the best bet would be to let Wolverine have his own movies and bring in Gambit. Cut Storm out or give her a very reduced role and center on Beast, Gambit, Kitty, Iceman, Colossus...etc. If possible, bring back Cyke. If they take out the expensive cast members that would bring down the costs and then have the budget wouldn't have to be in the 200 million range. Also, Fox has to stop micro managing this franchise and let the director and writers have creative freedom and most importantly time! The more time the less it would cost and would allow everything to be fine tuned to perfection or close to it. I really don't have much faith in Fox though, so the micro-managing will probably continue.

[Upthere]

I don't know, i think the best thing would be to get rid of Jackson and Berry, they're just eating up the revenues. Just get someone new and start afresh, after the bad taste that Ratner has left...

[Downhere]

I'd rather not recast anytime soon. If they go that route, they should wait a long while before bringing the X-Men back. If they were to do another film in the near future, I say just focus on other characters. The X-Men are filled with awesome characters that haven't had the chance to shine. Plus, I'd really like Gambit to come in and if they can find a way to bring back Cyke realistically, then giving him his due would be number 1 on my list.

[DarkPhoenixKid]

I want a recast of some characters like Jean(she will come back eventually,they'll think of a way,and Famke is getting prety old to play the role,it really showed in X3),Cyclops( i just don't think Mardsen pulled it off that well,he seemed too dead and stiff), and Rouge( Anna is more of the emotional type actress,i want an actioney rogue). The rest can stay. They need to add in the characters that joined the X0men team at the end of the X3 novel like Gambit.

[Upthere]

Interesting chart: www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=vs-xmen.htm

After X3's first week, it only led in daily figures against its predecessors very few times, just a way to look at how badly its legs were compared to the first two films.